Kevin Freibott, Senior Planner, 509.625.6500
Wednesday, December 4, 2024 at 4:42 p.m.
Estimated population growth in Spokane County from 2023-2046. View a larger version.
Updated Dec. 11, 2024
As the City continues to ramp up our efforts towards PlanSpokane, the next major update to the Comprehensive Plan, an essential question must be answered. That question is, in a nutshell, “Does the City of Spokane have enough land available to accommodate growth?”
The city is growing – that’s well understood. However, how much we are growing must be worked out if we are to understand where we are headed.
When looking at growth, State law has made it clear we have a few major topics to consider. First, we must think about how many additional people will live and work in Spokane in 20 years. For reference, Spokane County is expected to grow by more than 100,000 people in 23 years. Quite a few of those new residents are likely to live in the City of Spokane.
Thankfully, how many additional people are coming has been determined through a multi-level collaborative process with our neighbors and the State. In 2022 the Washington Office of Financial Management provided a range of forecasts for the entire county. After much discussion and study, all the jurisdictions in Spokane County agreed to use the middle forecast for the County as a whole of 100,065 new people by 2046.
Once overall growth was decided, the share of that growth each city and town should expect had to be worked out. Not every city grows the same way or at the same speed. There are many local conditions that might affect growth, so the region agreed to look at past growth over 20 years and use that to inform where each city and town might be going. Towns that grew slowly in the past are expected to continue, while fast-growing cities like Spokane Valley or Airway Heights, are expected to grow quickly in the future as well.
Ultimately, by studying historical growth and applying it to today, with a little adjustment to account for past growth that was higher than expected, each jurisdiction was assigned a proportion of the countywide growth. Some of the larger cities, the City of Spokane included, are expected to grow as shown in the graphic above. View a larger version of the graphic.
The number of people you see is more than 20 years of growth – because we determine growth long before we adopt the new Comprehensive Plan, this graphic shows growth from 2023 to 2046. Accordingly, the City of Spokane should expect to grow an average of 1,000 people per year through 2046. That’s almost a quarter of the growth in Spokane County. In other words, one in four people who come to Spokane County in the next two decades will likely live in the City of Spokane.
Now that we know the target, we must consider how to get there. Our next blog will explore the Land Capacity Analysis (LCA), a detailed analysis each city and town must complete to determine if they have enough room for all or if their regulations must change to allow more. Check back next time for more!
